Russia’s grip on the city of Kherson appeared increasingly fragile after a weekend in which all civilians were ordered to evacuate immediately in the face of the advancing Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The occupied city’s Russian administration told residents to take “documents, money, valuables and clothes” due to “the tense situation on the front” and reported on Sunday that there had been “a sharp increase” in the number of civilians trying to flee.
The US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said the urgent call indicated that the occupiers “do not expect a rapid Russian or civilian return” to the city, and appeared to be trying to depopulate it to damage its “long-term social and economic viability”.
Ukraine’s military added that Russia had evacuated veteran forces from around Kherson, the only city on the west bank of the Dnipro River captured by the invaders since the start of the war more than seven months ago.
Vladyslav Nazarov, a spokesperson from Ukraine’s operational command south, said in an update that Russian officers were “being moved to the left bank of the Dnipro River, leaving the newly mobilised units on the right”, referring to the west bank where the city is situated.
Russia’s position in Kherson has looked vulnerable for weeks, but at one point the Kremlin appeared keen to fight for the city, the only provincial capital its forces have captured in the war, and stationed 20,000 troops in and around it.
But Ukrainian successes on the northern section of the frontline in September, including the recapture of Izium, appear to have persuaded the Russians that they can no longer maintain forces west of the Dnipro because their position is too stretched overall.
Russian authorities in Kherson also said one man was killed and three injured after an explosion. Emergency services said an improvised explosive device had been detonated near a car in the city.
Concern is also growing that Russia may blow up a large hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka, upstream from Kherson, which holds back 18m cubic metres of water. On Friday, Ukrainian defence intelligence warned that the dam had been mined and that two trucks full of explosives had been placed on top of its 30m-high walls.
“Russian forces are likely preparing to destroy the dam,” the Institute of the Study of War said, with the aim of “flooding and widening the Dnipro River to delay any Ukrainian advances”. Blowing up the dam would risk destroying the homes of people who live downstream, affect energy supplies, and have a significant ecological impact.
Russian authorities said they were taking steps to reduce the volume of water behind the dam to minimise damage, the thinktank added, although they say they are doing so because they fear Ukrainian forces will blow up the dam.
Other concerns about Ukrainian activities were raised by senior Kremlin figures on Sunday. Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, spoke to his British, French and Turkish counterparts and expressed fears in all three meetings that Ukraine may use a “dirty bomb”, a conventional weapon containing radioactive material.
The Russian minister cited no evidence for this claim as he warned of “possible provocations” on the part of Kyiv, and there is no evidence that Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s, has any radioactive material in its military arsenal.
The UK Ministry of Defence said in a statement: “Shoigu alleged that Ukraine was planning actions facilitated by western countries, including the UK, to escalate the conflict in Ukraine. The defence secretary refuted these claims and cautioned that such allegations should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation.”
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Russian missiles also attacked the southern city of Mykolaiv overnight, with two missiles from a modified S-300 air defence system, the Ukrainian authorities said. One hit a largely empty apartment block, while a second landed in a children’s playground, but there were no casualties, according to the city’s mayor.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday that it had continued to launch attacks over the past 24 hours against Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructure, which had damaged or destroyed about a third of the country’s power generation capabilities.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said the “latest mass strike” affected regions in western, central and southern Ukraine – and called on Ukrainians to restrict their use of energy-intensive appliances in particular.
The president said he hoped that Ukraine would soon be better able to protects its power plants. “Of course we don’t have the technical ability to knock down 100% of the Russian missiles and strike drones. I am sure that, gradually, we will achieve that, with help from our partners,” he added.
In Kyiv, the capital’s energy supplier announced a programme of scheduled power cuts aimed at stabilising the country’s energy supply. Blackouts should last “no more than four hours”, the company said, but may be longer “due to the scale of damage to the power supply system”.
Other parts of the country have experienced blackouts since Thursday, after two weeks of Russian missile and drone attacks. Experts have said targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime.