Tories have ‘completely lost control’ of UK migration numbers, says Starmer – as it happened

• Keir Starmer has suggested that the government has “completely lost control” of net migration, following reports saying figures out later this month will show it at a record high of around 700,000. (See 12.09am.) He spoke out as Rishi Sunak, who is committed to reducing the overall level of net migration, faces pressure from within his party to bring down overall numbers. Since becoming PM Sunak has mostly focused on illegal migration, which accounts for only a small fraction of the overall immigration total. In the past Starmer has avoided saying total immigration numbers should come down, but he has said that businesses should end their dependence on foreign workers (see 3.34pm).

• Rail services have been brought to a standstill across much of Great Britain after train drivers on Friday began the first of the latest wave of planned strikes in a long-running pay dispute.

• The Conservatives’ decision to water down proposed legislation to remove 4,000 EU laws from the statute books is still a “reckless” and “irresponsible” project, leading barristers have said.

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In the Times today Ben Ansell, a politics professor at Oxford University, is quoted arguing that tactical voting will be crucial at the next election, and that it could deliver a wipeout of the Tories. He says:

Tactical voting could be the difference between a narrow [Labour] victory and something approaching total wipeout for the Tories. A fairly reasonable estimate of tactical voting makes it very, very, very hard for the Conservatives to break 200 seats, let alone get to a majority …

Even with the polls narrowing, if Labour and the Liberal Democrats are efficient you could still end up with a Labour majority and the Lib Dems with 50 seats.

This is a summary of an article that Ansell made at much greater length in a Substack article after the local elections.

Ansell has also developed an election predictor tool which gives predicted seat numbers for the main parties, based on what share of the vote they might have, but which also adjusts those numbers depending on what proportion of people with the option of deploying an anti-Tory tactical vote actually use it. It’s here.

As Ansell illustrates in this tweet (commenting on a poll showing Labour on 41%, and the Tories on 29%), tactical voting could make a huge difference.

Reform of the points-based immigration system is one of the measures included in an 86-page document setting out the Labour party’s policies, which has been prepared ahead of a meeting of its national policy forum (NPF) later this year. LabourList has seen a copy and published a summary.

On immigration, it says:

Any movement in the points-based migration system will come alongside new conditions to boost skills and more training, provide better pay and conditions and invest in new technology. When a sector is already heavily reliant on immigration, it will be required to develop these plans through dialogue and negotiation involving employers and trade unions.

The NPF draws up a policy programme that provides the bedrock for the manifesto. But the final decision about what will be in the manifesto will be decided after the election is announced, and it may well include policies not seen by the NPF.

Labour aides say that Keir Starmer’s comment this morning (see 12.09pm) suggesting the government has “completely lost control” of immigration – not illegal immigration, but overall net immigration – follows on from what he said in his speech to the CBI last autumn.

Starmer used that speech to say that he wanted British businesses to end their dependence on cheap foreign labour. He said Labour would adopt a pragmatic approach to allowing firms to use foreign workers to address skills shortages. But he went on:

With my Labour government any movement in our point-based migration system, whether via the skilled occupation route, or the shortage worker list, will come with new conditions for business.

We will expect you to bring forward a clear plan for higher skills and more training, for better pay and conditions, for investment in new technology.

But our common goal must be to help the British economy off its immigration dependency. To start investing more in training up workers who are already here.

After the speech the SNP accused Starmer of trying to “out-Tory the Tories” on immigration. But in his Q&A with journalists Starmer would not say whether he wanted overall immigration numbers to fall, as the Tories say they want.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukranian president, has thanked Rishi Sunak for the government’s decision to supply Ukraine with long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles, No 10 says. Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude when the two spoke by phone this afternoon. In a read-out of the call, Downing Street said:

The prime minister said he was pleased to deliver on the commitment he made in February to provide Ukraine with the long-range capabilities they need to defend themselves.

The leaders discussed the importance of the international community sustaining the level of support it has provided so far to Ukraine, particularly as the country prepares to intensify its military operations.

The prime minister restated the UK’s commitment to ensuring Ukraine prevails and secures a just and lasting peace.

Zelenskiy also thanked the UK for hosting Eurovision on behalf of Ukraine, while Sunak asked Zelenskiy to thank his wife for her attendance at the coronation last week.

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This is from Jonathan Portes, an economics professor and immigration specialist, on the debate about whether net immigration is too high.

Following last week’s local elections in England, Labour is now the party with the largest number of councillors in Britain. And it is the largest group on the Local Government Association.

With Labour the largest party, a Labour councillor, Shaun Davies, leader of Telford and Wrekin council, is taking over as LGA chair. He will replace James Jamieson, a Conservative.

The Migration Observatory, a thinktank focusing on migration policy based at Oxford University, published a report in December looking at why net migration to the UK has been rising. One factor has been people coming to the UK to flee war or persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong respectively. But the biggest category for visas covers people who come to the UK to study. There has also been a significant increase in the number of work visas being issued. This chart shows the trends.

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Arrivals on small boats across the Channel (45,755 in 2022, according to the official count) account for only a small fraction of overall net migration numbers.

Boris Johnson has joined calls for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, to be allowed to address Eurovision. In a message on Twitter he said:

It would have been right to hear from President Zelenskyy at tomorrow night’s #Eurovision. There is only one reason the contest is not in Ukraine and that is because of Putin’s illegal war.

Rishi Sunak has refused to offer any criticism of the Metropolitan police over their handling of protests in London on the day of the coronation, even though the Met itself has admitted that some arrests were a mistake.

At the No 10 lobby briefing today, asked if Sunak stood by his expressions of gratitude to the police despite the revelation that a fan of the royal family was arrested and detained for 13 hours just because she was standing next to Just Stop Oil protesters, the PM’s spokesperson replied:

Yes. As the prime minister said, it was an enormous policing effort to keep the public safe and do everything they did.

Downing Street says Rishi Sunak is “disappointed” by the European Broadcasting Union’s decision to stop Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, making a video appearance during the Eurovision final.

The PM’s spokesperson said:

The prime minister believes it would be fitting for President Zelenskiy to address the event and we’re disappointed by the decision from the European Broadcasting Union.

The values and freedoms that President Zelenskiy and the people of Ukraine are fighting for are not political, they’re fundamental, and Eurovision themselves recognised that last year when they rightly suspended Russia’s participation from the competition.

But there are no plans to intervene and ask broadcasters to change their mind, No 10 suggested.

In their 2019 manifesto the Conservatives promised, on immigration, that “there will be fewer lower-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down”. That is not a promise that has been kept, and the Daily Telegraph today claims (on the basis of an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank) that figures out later this month could show net migration between 700,000 and 997,000 for the year ending December 2022.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak remained committed to cutting the level of net migration. He said:

I’m not going to get ahead and start speculating what figures may or may not show when they are published later this month.

The prime minister’s overall commitment is to reduce migration overall and that is what we are trying to do through tackling illegal migration and the points-based system, which allows us flexibility based on our own needs.

The spokesperson said he did not believe Sunak had “ever put a figure on” how much he would like to see migration fall by.

The Conservatives’ decision to water down proposed legislation to remove 4,000 EU laws from the statute books is still a “reckless” and “irresponsible” project, leading barristers have said. Lisa O’Carroll has the story here.

Yesterday the Financial Times reported that migration figures due out later this month are expected to show net migration at record levels. It said net migration was at 504,000 between June 2021 and June 2022, but that the figure for 2022 could pass 700,000.

Today the Telegraph reports that the figure could reach almost one million.

Asked about the reports, Keir Starmer told broadcasters the government had “lost control” of immigration.

I think we need to wait and see what those figures are, but I’ve seen that speculation. I think if we’re anywhere near that figure then it will show the government has completely lost control. We need a managed approach and we haven’t got that.

Like almost everything else under this government, there’s no plan, there’s no control and, just like everything else, it seems like the system is broken.

Starmer’s comments represent a departure because, in the past, Labour has mostly focused it criticism of the government in relation to migration on illegal immigration, where even the home secretary, Suella Braverman, admits the government has lost control.

On legal immigration, in the past Labour has tended to be at least as liberal as the government, or more so. Starmer famously defended “free movement” when he was running for Labour leader.

But with the scale of legal immigration now becoming a political headache for the Tories, he may have sensed an opportunity. Labour has also said that British companies should not be reliant on foreign labour, and that training UK workers should be a bigger priority.

Speaking to journalists this morning, Keir Starmer was also asked about the revelation this week that Labour had spent three years dealing with a complaint from a woman who said she was sexually harassed by a senior aide. The aide has now resigned.

Asked if he was embarrassed the case had taken so long to resolve, Starmer said:

I think all of these allegations have to be taken extremely seriously, and they are taken seriously by me and the party.

I do understand, from my experience as chief prosecutor, how difficult it is for people to come forward.

That is among the reasons why we made our process completely independent, so it is not a political process any more.

What I would say is: I would encourage anybody to come forward and to feel they are supported through that independent process.