What Is Putin Worth to China?
In standing by Russia’s embattled strongman, Chinese leader Xi Jinping signals just how high a priority he has made of undermining the power of the West.
This weekend’s tumultuous events showed just how big a gamble the Chinese leader Xi Jinping took by partnering with Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin survived the rebellion that Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private army unleashed on Saturday. Perhaps Putin’s hold on power was never in great peril. Yet whether the incident is perceived as a mark of Putin’s weakness or of his resilience, it painted a picture of a Russia in deep decline, where a warlord can march on Moscow practically unchallenged, and where political fortunes can be unpredictable and even volatile.
Such is the country on which Xi has pinned many of his foreign-policy ambitions. Xi seems to have embraced Putin as an invaluable partner in his quest to push back American global power and reshape the world order in Beijing’s favor. That choice was always a risky one. By sticking with Putin when he invaded Ukraine last year, Xi was effectively trading ties to Europe for a closer bond to Russia, as his stance galvanized the allied democracies against him. Xi made his decision in the service of grander plans: The two dictators would make history. “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years. And we’re driving this change together,” Xi told Putin during their summit in Moscow in March.
Watching the rebellion unfold in Russia, one might imagine that Xi now feels that he bet on the wrong guy. Putin looks like a leader with a fair share of problems at home that will limit his ability to project significant influence abroad, and the drawn-out conflict in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian military.
But Xi has remained unmoved. The war, the reaction of the West—nothing so far has dissuaded him from tightening his ties to Putin. And though it is not easy to know the true thinking in China’s opaque halls of power, the rebellion doesn’t appear likely to change his mind either. If anything, it may further convince Xi of Putin’s importance as a bulwark against a destabilized Russia on his northern border. In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry noted that “as Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability.” A headline in the Global Times, a news outlet run by the Chinese Communist Party, called the notion that Putin has been weakened “‘wishful thinking’ of the West.”
At the same time, if in fact Putin has been weakened, Xi could stand to gain. Certainly, Xi has benefited already from the leverage Putin’s isolation affords China over Russia: Having torched his ties to the West, Putin has little choice but to deepen Russia’s reliance on China’s diplomatic support and trade—even its currency. That arrangement suits Xi just fine. And if the Wagner coup has weakened Putin still further, Xi can exert yet more influence over Russia’s economy and policy. Xi could use this authority to secure sources of energy and other raw materials from American interference and press Moscow to align its policies with Chinese interests.
Xi’s next moves regarding Russia will say a lot about the trajectory of China’s foreign policy. Continuing to stand by Putin will signal that Xi’s desire to undermine the power of the West remains paramount in his approach to the world and overrides even some pressing concerns at home. With China’s economy staggering and in need of Western investment and technology, Beijing has theoretically been seeking to repair its relations with Europe. But doing so will not be possible unless Xi ditches or at least greatly alters his relationship with Putin. Last week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang toured Europe, talking up the importance of continued engagement, but the European Commission, rather than embracing this outreach, released an economic-security strategy that aims to protect Europe’s interests against threats posed by China. In throwing his weight behind Putin, Xi will continue to damage relations with countries that have the wealth and influence to bolster China’s economic development and global stature in favor of advancing a partnership with a man and a nation that may no longer possess the power to help Xi achieve his goals.
The emphasis placed on partnership with Russia indicates just how dramatically Xi has reoriented the priorities of the Chinese government. Development was the prime concern for four decades, which meant that ties to the wealthy West had to take precedence. Now Xi is fixated on security, and he apparently believes—evidence aside—that Putin can help provide that security. The choice is a fateful one, with potentially severe consequences for China. But the Chinese political system has transformed into a one-man dictatorship that will stay on the course Xi sets, come rebellions, disastrous wars, or who knows what else.
Lessons remain for Xi to learn from Putin’s weekend travails. The rebellion reflected the strain placed on an authoritarian regime by an unpopular and protracted war. If Xi is watching closely, he might see in this episode a warning of the domestic political vulnerabilities that could arise from a military grab for Taiwan. A war for Taiwan, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, could fail or prove long and costly—tempting rebellion, and making it another gamble for Xi to lose.